Modern conflict is a mathematics of speed: whoever closes the loop from detection to decision first, wins. Yet the deciding systems still run on electronics that must be cooled, shielded, and powered — a burden measured in weight, and weight is the enemy of everything that flies. Meanwhile, a thousand-dollar drone routinely defeats a million-dollar answer.
The tell is procurement itself: record defense budgets, while the systems dominating headlines come from startups that didn't exist a decade ago. The primes are being lapped by the garage.
Inside: why the detection-to-decision loop decides the rest; how the drone cost curve rewrites defense economics from the bottom up; what light-speed logic — lighter, cooler, harder to jam — changes about what flies and what decides; and who is positioned to own the next defense stack.

This isn't a war forecast. It's an industry map for the fastest procurement shift in generations — written for builders who want to see it first.

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